The official COP29 press release hails a “Breakthrough in Baku,” ^[1] but I think “calamity on the Caspian” would be more accurate. The results of the 29^th Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UN’s Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) – the world’s largest annual climate conference – were disappointing to say the least.

Let’s sift through the rubble and see what we can find.

Low expectations, not met

Expectations were low from the start. Held this year in Baku, Azerbaijan, from November 11 – 22 (plus two days of unplanned overtime), COP29 was the second COP in a row to be hosted by a petrostate. The United Arab Emirates hosted COP28 last year. (You can find my COP28 summary here.) It didn’t help that Azerbaijan’s authoritarian President Ilham Aliyev called his country’s oil and gas deposits “a gift from god.” Read the room, pal!

International cooperation, never easy, has become more difficult due to conflicts in Ukraine and Israel/Gaza/Lebanon. Trade disputes between China and the United States complicate matters even further.

Indeed, early in the conference Argentinian President Javier Milei (a climate change denier) called his country’s negotiators home.^[2]

Finally, the reelection of another climate denier, Donald Trump, and his threat to pull out of the Paris Agreement and even the umbrella UNFCCC treaty loomed over the whole conference. And as author Elizabeth Kolbert points out in an article in The New Yorker, it also cost the US “whatever leverage it may have had” at COP.^[3]

The bar for success at COP29 wasn’t high. The conference failed to clear it.

“The finance COP”

Billed as the “finance COP,” COP29 was supposed to address the needs of developing countries for financial assistance in transitioning to clean energy and adapting to the on-going impacts of climate change. Back in 2009, developed countries pledged US$100 billion per year in assistance by 2020. They failed to meet that commitment until 2022. This year, the Parties were supposed replace that expired goal with a “new collective quantified goal” (NCQG). Developing countries need around $1.3 trillion per year by 2035 according to some estimates.

What they got was a “core” commitment for $300 billion from developed countries^[4] using a combination of public and private sources, and some very nebulous language calling for “all actors to work together to enable the scaling up of financing to developing country Parties for climate action from all public and private sources to at least USD 1.3 trillion per year by 2035.”^[5]

These negotiations were highly contentious and nearly collapsed altogether.^[6] Not only was the amount disputed but also who should contribute. Developed countries for sure, but what about emerging polluters such as China and Saudia Arabia? And what form would the contributions take: direct bilateral aid, loans from multilateral development banks (MDBs), grants, private sector investment, carbon offsets? Developing countries, already struggling with large international debts, often the result of dubious World Bank development schemes, prefer direct grants. What they got was “all of the above” without specific dollar values attached to any of them.

They say politics is the art of the possible. Maybe $300 billion is all that was possible this year. In today’s political climate, there wasn’t a hope in hell of getting $1.3 trillion. While the bulk of historical CO₂ emissions came from the United States and Europe, China is the world’s largest emitter today and other countries are growing contributors too. So I think it’s not unreasonable that they should step up. That didn’t happen either.

The result was immediately slammed by India, whose negotiator called it an “optical illusion” and a “paltry sum.”^[7] Other developing countries called it a joke and an insult. The outrage is justified. As historian Adam Tooze points out in an excellent post on his Chartbook substack titled The triple inequality of the “global” climate problem,^[8] climate change will most heavily impact those who have contributed least to the problem and are least able to pay for solutions. For small island states especially, like the Marshall Islands or Barbados, this is life or death. Rising sea levels could literally erase them from the map.

Oh, the official motto for COP29 was “In solidarity for a green world.”

Carbon markets – one bright spot

If there was one bright spot at COP29 it was an agreement on how to structure international carbon markets. Carbon markets are where organizations go to trade carbon credits.^[9] One carbon credit represents the reduction or removal of one metric ton of carbon dioxide or equivalent from the atmosphere typically for a period of at least 100 years. Carbon credits can be earned through renewable energy projects, reforestation and other approved mechanisms. Organizations that emit greenhouse gasses, like oil refineries for example, can buy carbon credits to offset their emissions or to comply with emission regulations.

The market for carbon credits could be a huge source of funding for clean energy and carbon removal projects, as much as $250 billion annually by some estimates.

The idea of carbon markets was included in Article 6 of the Paris Agreement^[10] but until now there had been no agreement on how they would work internationally. Ten years on, the Parties finally reached a deal in Baku.^[11] However, there are still technical implementation details to be worked out, so I expect it’ll be a year to two more before we see functioning carbon markets despite the official COP29 press release claiming “full operationalization.”^[12]

COP reform

People have been calling for reform of the COP process for a long time. This year, eminent experts including former UN Secretary-General Ban-ki Moon, former Irish President Mary Robinson and climate scientist Prof. Dr. Johan Rockström who popularized the idea of “planetary boundaries,” issued an open letter calling for a “fundamental overhaul” of COP and a “shift from negotiation to implementation.”^[13]

The first item on their list demanded strict eligibility criteria for the COP Presidency which would exclude countries that are not committed to transitioning away from fossil fuels.

Don’t hold your breath.

You have to wonder if there’s any point to these conferences anymore. Progress is glacially slow, if indeed there’s any progress at all. (Hmm, maybe that’s a bad metaphor these days since the glaciers are melting very quickly.) That’s partly because even though none of the decisions is legally binding on any country, UN processes require unanimous agreement on every word of every document.

Still countries must think the agreements coming out of these conferences are important, otherwise they wouldn’t fight tooth and nail over them. And I think it’s important for the world to come together to try reach consensus about how to address critical global problems like climate change.

But I sure wish the process was more effective.

Meanwhile

At last year’s COP28 in Dubai, the Parties agreed for the first time to “transitioning away from fossil fuels.”^[14] Saudi Arabia reportedly worked furiously to remove this language at COP29. They basically succeeded. While there’s a general reference to last year’s agreement, those specific words don’t appear in this year’s decision.^[15]

Meanwhile, at least 1,300 people died earlier this year during the annual Hajj to Mecca in Saudi Arabia where temperatures reached 53.8°C.^[16]

And finally, the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service projects that 2024 is “virtually certain” to be the warmest year on record and the first full year of global average temperatures over 1.5°C above preindustrial levels.^[17] While it’ll take several years of above-1.5°C temperatures to officially exceed the Paris Agreement goal, some scientists are already calling it “deader than a doornail.”^[18]

Thanks for reading.

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References

[1] COP29 Presidency. “Breakthrough in Baku delivers $1.3tn ‘Baku Finance Goal’.” 24 Nov 2024, https://cop29.az/en/media-hub/news/breakthrough-in-baku-delivers-13tn-baku-finance-goal.

[2] Greenfield, Patrick. “Argentina withdraws negotiators from COP29 summit.” The Guardian,13 Nov 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/nov/13/argentina-withdraws-negotiators-from-cop29-summit

[3] Kolbert, Elizabeth. “At COP29, the Sun sets on U.S. climate leadership.” The New Yorker, 11 Nov. 2024, https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-lede/at-cop29-the-sun-sets-on-us-climate-leadership

[4] UNFCCC. Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA). “New collective goal on climate finance.” 24 Nov. 2024, https://unfccc.int/documents/643641, paragraph 8.

[5] Ibid., paragraph 7

[6] Gelles, David and Plumer, Brad. “Climate Talks Head Into the Final Stretch With Negotiators Far Apart.” The New York Times, 18 Nov 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/18/climate/cop29-climate-summit-final-stretch.html.

[7] Mohan, Vishwa. “COP29 ends with a weak outcome, India rejects the deal calling it an optical illusion.” The Times of India, 24 Nov 2024, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/cop29-ends-with-a-weak-outcome-india-rejects-the-deal-calling-it-an-optical-illusion/articleshow/115631931.cms

[8] Tooze, Adam. “The triple inequality of the ‘global’ climate problem.” Chartbook, 10 Jun 2023, https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-219-the-triple-inequality.

[9] Greenfield, Patrick. “Cop29: what are carbon credits and why are they so controversial?” The Guardian, 10 Nov 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/nov/10/cop29-what-are-carbon-credits-and-why-are-they-so-controversial.

[10] United Nations. “Paris Agreement, Article 6.” 2015, https://unfccc.int/files/essential_background/convention/application/pdf/english_paris_agreement.pdf#page=9

[11] Furness, Virginia, et al. “COP29 agrees deal to kick-start global carbon credit trading.” Reuters, 23 Nov 2024, https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/sustainable-finance-reporting/cop29-agrees-deal-kick-start-global-carbon-credit-trading-2024-11-23.

[12] COP29 Presidency. “COP29 achieves full operationalization of Article 6 of Paris Agreement – Unlocks International Carbon Markets.” 23 Nov 2024, https://cop29.az/en/media-hub/news/cop29-achieves-full-operationalisation-of-article-6-of-paris-agreement-unlocks-international-carbon-markets.

[13] Dixson-Declève, Sandrine, et al. “Open Letter on COP reform to All States that are Parties to the Convention.” The Club of Rome, 15 Nov 2024, https://www.clubofrome.org/cop-reform-2024/

[14] UNFCCC. Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA). “Report of the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement on its fifth session, held in the United Arab Emirates from 30 November to 13 December 2023. Addendum. Part two: Action taken by the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement at its fifth session.” 15 Mar 2024, https://unfccc.int/documents/637073, decision 1.CMA.5, paragraph 28(d).

[15] Bearak, Max. “Climate Talks End With a Bitter Fight and a Deal on Money.” The New York Times, 23 Nov 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/23/climate/cop29-climate-talks-conclusion.html.

[16] Agence France-Press. “At least 1,300 hajj pilgrims died during extreme heat, Saudi Arabia says.” The Guardian, 23 Jun 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/23/hajj-pilgrimage-death-toll-extreme-heat-mecca-saudi-arabia

[17] Copernicus Climate Change Services. “Copernicus: 2024 virtually certain to be the warmest year and first year above 1.5°C.” 7 Nov 2024, https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-2024-virtually-certain-be-warmest-year-and-first-year-above-15degc.

[18] Milman, Oliver. “World’s 1.5C climate target ‘deader than a doornail’, experts say.” The Guardian, 18 Nov 2024, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/nov/18/climate-crisis-world-temperature-target

Related Links

Gelles, David. “What Is COP29? Here’s What to Know About Global Climate Talks.” The New York Times, 12 Nov 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/07/climate/cop29-baku-azerbaijan.html.

Chandrasekhar, Aruna, et al. “COP29: Key outcomes agreed at the UN climate talks in Baku.” Carbon Brief, 24 Nov 2024, https://www.carbonbrief.org/cop29-key-outcomes-agreed-at-the-un-climate-talks-in-baku/.