They went into overtime at COP28, but delegates to the UN climate conference in Dubai emerged on the morning of December 13, 2023 with a unanimous agreement signed by nearly 200 countries.

Here’s my summary.

(For background on COP28, please see this COP28 Explainer.)

The Good

Transitioning away from fossil fuels

This one grabbed all the headlines, and for good reason. For the first time in 30 years of COP conferences, the Parties agreed to transition away from fossil fuels. Specifically the agreement calls for Parties to contribute to:

“Transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science;” [1]

Earlier proposed language about a phase-down or a phase-out of fossil fuels, unabated or otherwise, was dropped from the final document.

Some have hailed this as the “beginning of the end” for fossil fuels. There’s no question that getting these words into a COP document is a significant accomplishment, but they’re still just words. The real proof will be in implementation. And there are plenty of loopholes elsewhere in the document to allow recalcitrant Parties to slither out.

Renewables and efficiency

The Parties agreed to triple global renewable energy capacity and double the rate of improvements in energy efficiency by 2030. 123 countries have now signed the Global Renewables and Energy Efficiency Pledge.

Reducing methane emissions

50 oil and gas companies have pledged to reduce methane emissions to “near zero” by 2030 and to eliminate routing flaring. Methane is a critical greenhouse gas that’s about 80 times more potent than carbon dioxide in its warming effect on the atmosphere. The pledge is part of the Oil and Gas Decarbonization Charter.

Although these pledges don’t go far enough or fast enough, they represent another COP first: agreement on reducing methane emissions.

Loss and damage fund

A loss and damage fund, first agreed to at last year’s COP27, has finally become operational after lengthy and tense negotiations in the run-up to COP28. The announcement was made on November 30, 2023, the first day of COP28, by the COP President.

About US$655-million has been pledged to the fund so far, according to this COP28 climate funds pledge tracker compiled by the Natural Resources Defense Council (NDRC). Much more is needed.

Deforestation and biodiversity

In another first, the Parties recognized the importance of halting and reversing deforestation and conserving biodiversity in achieving the Paris Agreement temperature goals. They recognize:

“… the importance of conserving, protecting and restoring nature and ecosystems towards achieving the Paris Agreement temperature goal, including through enhanced efforts towards halting and reversing deforestation and forest degradation by 2030, and other terrestrial and marine ecosystems acting as sinks and reservoirs of greenhouse gases and by conserving biodiversity, while ensuring social and environmental safeguards, in line with the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework;” [2]

COP28 President Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber

His appointment as COP28 President was greeted with dismay. Many (including me) doubted he could be trusted as COP President while also serving as CEO of the UAE’s national oil company. But he managed to secure the agreement of Saudi Arabia and other OPEC countries on a final text that called for transitioning away from fossil fuels.

Give the guy a little credit.

The Bad

Climate finance

This was probably to most disappointing area of the whole conference. Despite pledges totaling billions of dollars for various climate related funds, the amounts are miniscule compared to the trillions needed.

The final text even noted “with deep regret” [3] that the goal of developed country Parties providing $100 billion annually for climate mitigation efforts was not met by the 2020 target date and has still not been met.

The United States in particular should be ashamed of its insulting COP28 pledge of just $20-million to the Loss and Damage Fund.

The CCUS loophole

Accelerating the development of abatement technologies like carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) was included in the paragraph immediately following the call for transitioning away from fossil fuels, likely to appease fossil fuel producing countries.

Unfortunately, while the text notes these technologies are important “particularly in hard-to-abate sectors” [4] it does not limit them to these sectors. This leaves the door open for fossil fuel producers to claim CCUS as a get-out-of-jail-free card even though that technology is still immature does not operate anywhere near the scale needed to mitigate fossil fuel carbon emissions.

Carbon markets

Apparently the US and the EU failed to agree on standard rules for trading carbon offsets, so no progress was made at COP28. The carbon offset market is currently a shambles so agreement here could be very helpful.

It’s still non-binding

Parties are asked to update their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) by 2025 to reflect the transition away from fossil fuels and other aspects of the final report, but these commitments are still not enforceable in any way. 

To be fair, this is how the UN works in general, so it’s not a specific failure of the COP process.

It still doesn’t add up

The COP28 pledges and agreements still do not put the world on track to meet the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by 2050.

On December 10, the International Energy Agency (IEA) published a report analyzing the estimated reduction in carbon emissions by 2030 from the COP28 agreements on tripling renewable energy capacity, doubling the rate of improvement in energy efficiency and reducing methane emissions.

The IEA concluded that:

“This reduction in 2030 emissions represents only around 30% of the emissions gap that needs to be bridged to get the world on a pathway compatible with limiting global warming to 1.5 C.” [5]

This failure is especially harmful to small island nations in danger of being wiped out by rising sea levels.

John Silk, head of delegation from the Republic of the Marshall Islands said:

“I came here from my home in the islands to work with you all to solve the greatest challenge of our generation. I came here to build a canoe together for my country. Instead we have built a canoe with a weak and leaky hull, full of holes. Instead we have put it in the water.” [6]

The Ugly

Meanwhile, investment in fossil fuel production continues to increase and the world continues the heat up.

Overinvesting in fossil fuel production

ADNOC, the UAE’s national oil company headed by Al Jaber plans to spend $150-billion over the next five years to increase oil and gas production. The industry as a whole invests about $800-billion per year in oil and gas supply. But the IEA estimates this amount is “is double what is required in 2030 to meet declining demand in a 1.5 °C scenario.” [9]

Exceeding Paris Agreement targets

In a November 2, 2023 paper titled “Global warming in the pipeline” renowned climate scientist James Hansen and other co-authors warn that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) may be underestimating Earth’s climate sensitivity to atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide. As a result,

“… under the present geopolitical approach to GHG emissions, global warming will exceed 1.5°C in the 2020s and 2°C before 2050.” [7]

Climate tipping points

The impact of climate change isn’t linear. Earth’s climate won’t get worse at a slow and steady pace. Instead, we risk crossing abrupt and irreversible tipping points. Some of these are frankly terrifying, like the Amazon flipping over from a carbon sink to a carbon source, or the thawing of Arctic permafrost releasing huge quantities of methane into the atmosphere.

The Global Tipping Points Report by Prof. Tim Lenton of the University of Exeter and other co-authors, published on December 6, 2023, says:

“Harmful tipping points in the natural world pose some of the gravest threats faced by humanity. Their triggering will severely damage our planet’s life-support systems and threaten the stability of our societies.” [8]

Closing thoughts

Humanity is in a race against time. Can we accelerate progress towards reducing and then eliminating greenhouse gas emissions quickly enough to avoid devastating impacts to Earth’s climate?

With the stakes so high, it’s frustrating to watch the sausage-making at a conference like COP28.

COP documents require unanimous agreement of the Parties on every word and every comma. This seems like an area ripe for reform but it’s the process that exists today. So inevitably, the final text will be full of compromises and riddled with loopholes. The result will be neither ambitious enough nor fast enough for the challenges we face. It won’t fully satisfy anyone. Yet it’s not a complete failure either.

Getting nearly 200 countries to sign off is miraculous.

I think it’s also important to keep in mind that international climate conferences like COP28 cannot, by themselves, have much direct impact. But if they had no value at all, then neither supporters nor opponents of climate policies would show up and negotiate so hard for their positions.

I believe COP conferences have important symbolic value. They help set direction for the climate policies of national and local governments all over the world.

That’s what COP28 has accomplished. It’s nowhere near enough. Now the world must step up.

Thanks for reading.

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COP28 Wrap-up: the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly © 2023 by Harry Katz is licensed under CC BY-NC 4.0

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References

[1] UNFCCC. Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA). Outcome of the first global stocktake. Draft decision -/CMA.5. Proposal by the President. December 13, 2023. Paragraph 25(d).

[2] UNFCCC. Paragraph 30.

[3] UNFCCC. Paragraph 80.

[4] UNFCCC. Paragraph 28(e).

[5] IEA. IEA assessment of the evolving pledges at COP28. December 10, 2023.

[6] Reuters. Reaction to the final COP28 climate deal. Dubai. December 13, 2023.

[7] James E Hansen, Makiko Sato, Leon Simons, Larissa S Nazarenko, Isabelle Sangha, Pushker Kharecha, James C Zachos, Karina von Schuckmann, Norman G Loeb, Matthew B Osman, Qinjian Jin, George Tselioudis, Eunbi Jeong, Andrew Lacis, Reto Ruedy, Gary Russell, Junji Cao, Jing Li, Global warming in the pipeline, Oxford Open Climate Change, Volume 3, Issue 1, 2023, kgad008, https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfclm/kgad008

[8] T. M. Lenton, L. Laybourn, D.I. Armstrong McKay, S. Loriani, J.F. Abrams, S.J. Lade, J.F. Donges, M. Milkoreit, S.R. Smith, E. Bailey, T. Powell, L. Fesenfeld, C. Zimm, C.A. Boulton, J.E. Buxton, J.G. Dyke, A. Ghadiali (2023), Global Tipping Points Report 2023: ‘Summary Report’ in [T. M. Lenton, D.I. Armstrong McKay, S. Loriani, J.F. Abrams, S.J. Lade, J.F. Donges, M. Milkoreit, T. Powell, S.R. Smith, C. Zimm, J.E. Buxton, L. Laybourn, A. Ghadiali, J.G. Dyke (eds), 2023, The Global Tipping Points Report 2023.] University of Exeter, Exeter, UK. p. 3.

[9] IEA (2023), The Oil and Gas Industry in Net Zero Transitions, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/the-oil-and-gas-industry-in-net-zero-transitions, License: CC BY 4.0. p. 14.

Related Links

After 30 years of waiting, Cop28 deal addresses the elephant in the room
Fiona Harvey. The Guardian. December 13, 2023.

Cop28: landmark deal to ‘transition away’ from fossil fuels agreed – as it happened
Ajit Niranjan, Bibi van der Zee, Alan Evans, Natalie Hanman. The Guardian. December 13, 2023

In a First, Nations at Climate Summit Agree to Move Away From Fossil Fuels
Brad Plumer and Max Bearak. The New York Times. December 13, 2023.

Top takeaways from historic COP28 deal on fossil fuels
Bill Spindle. Cipher. December 13, 2023.

Reaction to the final COP28 climate deal
Reuters. December 13, 2023